Seattle Mariners
SEA • 2026 Season Prediction
2026 Outlook
🟢 Contender 69% playoff probabilityThe Seattle Mariners are poised for another strong season in 2026, building on their impressive performance in recent years. With a talented roster and a winning mentality, the Mariners are well-positioned to make a deep playoff run and potentially challenge for the American League pennant.
Much of the Mariners' success will hinge on the continued production of their star players. Catcher Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the league's most powerful hitters, blasting 60 home runs in 2025, while outfielder Julio Rodríguez remains a dynamic threat at the plate and on the basepaths. Additionally, the offseason acquisition of outfielder Randy Arozarena has added another potent bat to the lineup, complementing the steady presence of first baseman Josh Naylor.
On the pitching side, the Mariners boast a solid rotation led by the likes of Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo, backed by the electric relief arm of Andrés Muñoz. With a well-rounded roster and a proven track record of success, the Mariners are primed to win 90 games and hold a 68.8% probability of reaching the playoffs, solidifying their status as a true contender in the 2026 MLB season.
Strengths
Weaknesses
⚾ Kalshi Markets
View all →Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
KXMLB-26-SEA
Market Price
11¢
Model Prob
5.3%
Edge
-5.7%
Bid/Ask
10¢/12¢
Will Seattle be the 2026 AL West Division Winner
KXMLBALWEST-26-SEA
Market Price
52¢
Model Prob
39.8%
Edge
-12.2%
Bid/Ask
51¢/53¢
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-SEA
Market Price
74¢
Model Prob
68.8%
Edge
-5.7%
Bid/Ask
72¢/77¢
Will Seattle win at least 105 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T105
Market Price
27¢
Model Prob
3.2%
Edge
-23.8%
Bid/Ask
0¢/27¢
Will Seattle win at least 80 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T80
Market Price
69¢
Model Prob
89.6%
Edge
+20.6%
Bid/Ask
69¢/100¢
Will Seattle win at least 75 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T75
Market Price
78¢
Model Prob
97.0%
Edge
+19.0%
Bid/Ask
78¢/100¢
Will Seattle win at least 100 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T100
Market Price
22¢
Model Prob
10.8%
Edge
-11.2%
Bid/Ask
8¢/36¢
Will Seattle win at least 95 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T95
Market Price
36¢
Model Prob
27.1%
Edge
-8.9%
Bid/Ask
20¢/52¢
Will Seattle win at least 85 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T85
Market Price
70¢
Model Prob
73.8%
Edge
+3.8%
Bid/Ask
56¢/84¢
Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-SEA-26-T90
Market Price
54¢
Model Prob
50.5%
Edge
-3.5%
Bid/Ask
53¢/55¢
Predicted Wins
90
±0.6 standard deviation
Range: 89–91 wins (95% CI)
Kalshi Market Line
N/A
No market available
Edge vs Market
—
No edge calculation
Model Confidence
94%
Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty