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2026 Season
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New York Mets

NYM • 2026 Season Prediction

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2026 Outlook

🟢 Contender 50% playoff probability

The 2026 season looks to be a promising one for the New York Mets, who are poised to build upon their recent successes and cement their status as contenders in the National League. With a projected win total of 87 and a 50.5% playoff probability, the Mets have the potential to make some serious noise in the coming year.

At the heart of their lineup will be the dynamic duo of Juan Soto and Bo Bichette, who will look to anchor the offense with their impressive power and hitting prowess. Soto, in particular, has emerged as one of the league's premier sluggers, capable of launching 40+ home runs on an annual basis. Alongside them, Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco will provide valuable depth and veteran leadership, while up-and-coming star Brett Baty looks to continue his development and solidify his place in the starting nine.

On the mound, the Mets' pitching staff features a formidable trio in Freddy Peralta, Kodai Senga, and Clay Holmes. Peralta, with his electric stuff and pinpoint control, will lead the rotation, while Senga's nasty splitter and Holmes' dominant sinker will provide a potent 1-2 punch out of the bullpen. If these key players can stay healthy and deliver consistent performances, the Mets' postseason aspirations may very well come to fruition.

Strengths

Star power Depth

Weaknesses

Expectations Division

⚾ Kalshi Markets

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Will New York M win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

KXMLB-26-NYM

FADE

Market Price

Model Prob

3.6%

Edge

-2.9%

Bid/Ask

6¢/7¢

Will New York M be the 2026 NL East Division Winner

KXMLBNLEAST-26-NYM

STRONG FADE

Market Price

36¢

Model Prob

21.2%

Edge

-15.3%

Bid/Ask

35¢/38¢

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-NYM

STRONG FADE

Market Price

70¢

Model Prob

50.5%

Edge

-19.0%

Bid/Ask

68¢/71¢

Will New York M win at least 105 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T105

STRONG FADE

Market Price

28¢

Model Prob

1.4%

Edge

-26.6%

Bid/Ask

0¢/28¢

Will New York M win at least 75 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T75

STRONG BUY

Market Price

75¢

Model Prob

93.7%

Edge

+18.6%

Bid/Ask

75¢/100¢

Will New York M win at least 95 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T95

STRONG FADE

Market Price

35¢

Model Prob

17.0%

Edge

-18.0%

Bid/Ask

24¢/46¢

Will New York M win at least 100 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T100

STRONG FADE

Market Price

24¢

Model Prob

5.8%

Edge

-17.8%

Bid/Ask

10¢/37¢

Will New York M win at least 90 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T90

STRONG FADE

Market Price

54¢

Model Prob

36.9%

Edge

-17.1%

Bid/Ask

52¢/56¢

Will New York M win at least 85 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T85

STRONG FADE

Market Price

75¢

Model Prob

61.2%

Edge

-13.8%

Bid/Ask

71¢/79¢

Will New York M win at least 80 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-NYM-26-T80

STRONG BUY

Market Price

68¢

Model Prob

81.8%

Edge

+13.8%

Bid/Ask

68¢/100¢

Predicted Wins

87

±0.2 standard deviation

Range: 86–87 wins (95% CI)

Kalshi Market Line

N/A

No market available

Edge vs Market

No edge calculation

Model Confidence

98%

Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty

Prediction Distribution