Miami Marlins
MIA • 2026 Season Prediction
2026 Outlook
🔴 Rebuilder 3% playoff probabilityAs the 2026 MLB season approaches, the Miami Marlins find themselves in the midst of a rebuilding phase, looking to chart a new course after a few tough seasons. With a projected win total of 71 and a modest 2.5% chance of making the playoffs, the Marlins are focused on developing their young talent and laying the foundation for future success.
The team's roster boasts several promising pieces, including outfielder Kyle Stowers, who provided a bright spot in 2025 with a .288 batting average and 25 home runs. Infielder Heriberto Hernández and utility man Jakob Marsee also showed flashes of potential, and the Marlins will be hoping for continued growth from this group. On the pitching front, the team will rely heavily on the likes of Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips, and Anthony Bender, who all put together solid campaigns in 2025.
While the Marlins' playoff aspirations may be modest, the 2026 season presents an opportunity for the organization to further develop its young talent and lay the groundwork for a more competitive future. Fans in Miami will be keeping a close eye on the progress of these promising players, eager to see the Marlins return to the postseason in the years to come.
Strengths
Weaknesses
⚾ Kalshi Markets
View all →Will Miami win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
KXMLB-26-MIA
Market Price
1¢
Model Prob
0.1%
Edge
-0.9%
Bid/Ask
0¢/1¢
Will Miami be the 2026 NL East Division Winner
KXMLBNLEAST-26-MIA
Market Price
3¢
Model Prob
0.6%
Edge
-2.4%
Bid/Ask
2¢/4¢
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-MIA
Market Price
14¢
Model Prob
2.5%
Edge
-11.5%
Bid/Ask
13¢/15¢
Will Miami win at least 90 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T90
Market Price
29¢
Model Prob
1.0%
Edge
-28.0%
Bid/Ask
0¢/29¢
Will Miami win at least 80 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T80
Market Price
36¢
Model Prob
14.0%
Edge
-22.0%
Bid/Ask
20¢/52¢
Will Miami win at least 95 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T95
Market Price
22¢
Model Prob
0.2%
Edge
-21.8%
Bid/Ask
0¢/22¢
Will Miami win at least 85 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T85
Market Price
23¢
Model Prob
4.4%
Edge
-18.6%
Bid/Ask
7¢/39¢
Will Miami win at least 75 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T75
Market Price
50¢
Model Prob
32.3%
Edge
-18.2%
Bid/Ask
50¢/51¢
Will Miami win at least 70 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T70
Market Price
66¢
Model Prob
56.4%
Edge
-9.6%
Bid/Ask
50¢/82¢
Will Miami win at least 65 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T65
Market Price
80¢
Model Prob
78.3%
Edge
-1.7%
Bid/Ask
64¢/96¢
Predicted Wins
71
±0.9 standard deviation
Range: 69–72 wins (95% CI)
Kalshi Market Line
N/A
No market available
Edge vs Market
—
No edge calculation
Model Confidence
91%
Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty