Menu
⚾ Teams 📈 Markets 🏆 Playoffs 📊 Backtest 🔬 Features ℹ️ About
2026 Season
Back to all teams

Miami Marlins

MIA • 2026 Season Prediction

HOLD

2026 Outlook

🔴 Rebuilder 3% playoff probability

As the 2026 MLB season approaches, the Miami Marlins find themselves in the midst of a rebuilding phase, looking to chart a new course after a few tough seasons. With a projected win total of 71 and a modest 2.5% chance of making the playoffs, the Marlins are focused on developing their young talent and laying the foundation for future success.

The team's roster boasts several promising pieces, including outfielder Kyle Stowers, who provided a bright spot in 2025 with a .288 batting average and 25 home runs. Infielder Heriberto Hernández and utility man Jakob Marsee also showed flashes of potential, and the Marlins will be hoping for continued growth from this group. On the pitching front, the team will rely heavily on the likes of Ronny Henriquez, Tyler Phillips, and Anthony Bender, who all put together solid campaigns in 2025.

While the Marlins' playoff aspirations may be modest, the 2026 season presents an opportunity for the organization to further develop its young talent and lay the groundwork for a more competitive future. Fans in Miami will be keeping a close eye on the progress of these promising players, eager to see the Marlins return to the postseason in the years to come.

Strengths

Development Future

Weaknesses

Talent gap Rebuild

⚾ Kalshi Markets

View all →

Will Miami win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

KXMLB-26-MIA

HOLD

Market Price

Model Prob

0.1%

Edge

-0.9%

Bid/Ask

0¢/1¢

Will Miami be the 2026 NL East Division Winner

KXMLBNLEAST-26-MIA

FADE

Market Price

Model Prob

0.6%

Edge

-2.4%

Bid/Ask

2¢/4¢

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-MIA

STRONG FADE

Market Price

14¢

Model Prob

2.5%

Edge

-11.5%

Bid/Ask

13¢/15¢

Will Miami win at least 90 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T90

STRONG FADE

Market Price

29¢

Model Prob

1.0%

Edge

-28.0%

Bid/Ask

0¢/29¢

Will Miami win at least 80 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T80

STRONG FADE

Market Price

36¢

Model Prob

14.0%

Edge

-22.0%

Bid/Ask

20¢/52¢

Will Miami win at least 95 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T95

STRONG FADE

Market Price

22¢

Model Prob

0.2%

Edge

-21.8%

Bid/Ask

0¢/22¢

Will Miami win at least 85 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T85

STRONG FADE

Market Price

23¢

Model Prob

4.4%

Edge

-18.6%

Bid/Ask

7¢/39¢

Will Miami win at least 75 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T75

STRONG FADE

Market Price

50¢

Model Prob

32.3%

Edge

-18.2%

Bid/Ask

50¢/51¢

Will Miami win at least 70 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T70

STRONG FADE

Market Price

66¢

Model Prob

56.4%

Edge

-9.6%

Bid/Ask

50¢/82¢

Will Miami win at least 65 games this season?

KXMLBWINS-MIA-26-T65

HOLD

Market Price

80¢

Model Prob

78.3%

Edge

-1.7%

Bid/Ask

64¢/96¢

Predicted Wins

71

±0.9 standard deviation

Range: 69–72 wins (95% CI)

Kalshi Market Line

N/A

No market available

Edge vs Market

No edge calculation

Model Confidence

91%

Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty

Prediction Distribution