Houston Astros
HOU • 2026 Season Prediction
2026 Outlook
🔵 Playoff Hopeful 41% playoff probabilityThe Houston Astros are poised to remain a formidable force in the 2026 MLB season, but with some key changes to their roster, it's hard to predict if they'll continue their recent dominance. The good news is that they'll still have the reliable duo of Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve leading the way. Peña, in particular, has emerged as a true superstar, hitting over .300 with 17 homers last season, while Altuve remains a consistent power threat. However, the loss of Carlos Correa to free agency leaves a notable hole in the lineup that will need to be filled.
One bright spot for the Astros is the continued development of their pitching staff, anchored by the electric arm of Hunter Brown. The young right-hander had a breakout 2025 campaign, posting a 2.43 ERA, and will be looking to build on that success. Veteran reliever Josh Hader also gives the Astros a reliable option to close out games. However, the departure of Gerrit Cole has left a void in the rotation, and the Astros will need to find a way to replace his production.
With a projected win total of 84 and a 40.7% chance of making the playoffs, the Astros find themselves in the "playoff hopeful" category. While they may not be the juggernaut they've been in recent years, their core talent and ability to develop homegrown players should keep them competitive and in the hunt for a postseason berth.
Strengths
Weaknesses
⚾ Kalshi Markets
View all →Will Houston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?
KXMLB-26-HOU
Market Price
4¢
Model Prob
2.6%
Edge
-0.9%
Bid/Ask
3¢/4¢
Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner
KXMLBALWEST-26-HOU
Market Price
24¢
Model Prob
16.2%
Edge
-7.3%
Bid/Ask
23¢/24¢
Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers
KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-HOU
Market Price
48¢
Model Prob
40.7%
Edge
-7.8%
Bid/Ask
47¢/50¢
Will Houston win at least 70 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T70
Market Price
68¢
Model Prob
96.7%
Edge
+28.7%
Bid/Ask
68¢/100¢
Will Houston win at least 65 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T65
Market Price
76¢
Model Prob
99.3%
Edge
+23.3%
Bid/Ask
76¢/100¢
Will Houston win at least 95 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T95
Market Price
32¢
Model Prob
10.3%
Edge
-21.7%
Bid/Ask
0¢/32¢
Will Houston win at least 75 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T75
Market Price
73¢
Model Prob
88.8%
Edge
+15.8%
Bid/Ask
57¢/89¢
Will Houston win at least 80 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T80
Market Price
59¢
Model Prob
72.4%
Edge
+13.4%
Bid/Ask
43¢/75¢
Will Houston win at least 85 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T85
Market Price
52¢
Model Prob
49.0%
Edge
-2.5%
Bid/Ask
51¢/52¢
Will Houston win at least 90 games this season?
KXMLBWINS-HOU-26-T90
Market Price
26¢
Model Prob
25.9%
Edge
+0.4%
Bid/Ask
12¢/39¢
Predicted Wins
84
±0.2 standard deviation
Range: 84–85 wins (95% CI)
Kalshi Market Line
N/A
No market available
Edge vs Market
—
No edge calculation
Model Confidence
98%
Based on feature quality, historical accuracy, and prediction uncertainty